Gold stole the show this week, reaching new all-time highs above $2200/oz, on the back of the Fed signaling rate cuts this year and into 2025. Increased visibility on rates comes despite inflation still running above 2%. For some perspective, Gold has now rallied more than 10% since mid-February. Importantly, global central banks have indicated they will follow suit and in the case of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), they have already cut 0.25 bps.

Despite strong demand for gold, precious metals stocks have not benefited yet as new money has not flowed into precious metals funds as we saw in past cycles. There are many competing factors adding to this phenomenon, however a key contributor is that the broader market (also set to benefit from lower rates) just posted its strongest week of the year, reaching new all-time highs. No doubt, gold stocks have found it hard to compete in the face of bullish investor sentiment chasing large liquid tech stocks including Bitcoin. However, at some point that will change, and a selloff will inevitably come!

An interesting discussion point has been the relative outperformance of Spot Gold and the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), versus the precious metals equities (GDX). The charts (see below) demonstrate this with investors betting on the metal and not the miners. On a positive note, there are signs things are changing as demonstrated in the chart below that shows all total known ETF’s of Gold starting to trend higher. Note, industry bellwethers Barrick Gold (ABX) and Newmont Mining (NEM) are both actually down 10.6% and 16.5 % respectively YTD. History would suggest that eventually the equities will follow the metal price higher but so far, the equites have not benefited materially.

Direct feedback from some precious metals focused funds that brokers spoke with this week confirmed the current stake of play. Many of the Funds told them they have seen ‘at best a trickle’ of net inflows! Until this dynamic changes, the reality is that more patience will be required. That said, good individual stories are still finding buyers but the competition for scarce capital is fierce! To sum it up, this week a commodities analyst at BMO, Colin Hamilton, was quoted as saying that “global gold ETFS saw inflows of 400,000 ounces Monday, the largest inflow in four months and a sudden reversal of the trend outflows seen in March thus far.” The early signs are encouraging, but yet again we are being asked to hurry up and wait!

Gold has stabilized above $2,100 USD and is just below its record high set at the end of last week. The US Fed is weighing slightly hotter than expected data which has led them, not supersizing, to adopt a more patient approach to deciding when to cut rates. Accordingly, markets have repriced cuts to a mid-year scenario!

Chart to Watch: 1 Year Gold Spot v Gold Backed ETF (GLD) v GDX

Chart to Watch: Total Known ETF Holdings of Gold

by Georges Lequime

This blog is a financial promotion issued by Amati Global Investors Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not represent an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities; nor does it provide you with all the information that you need to make an informed decision about investing in the Fund. Prospective investors should read all of the Fund documentation, including the Prospectus, the Key Investor Information Document (KIID) and the Supplementary Information Document (SID), which are available at www.amatiglobal.com.

Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Tax rates, as well as the treatment of OEICs, could change at any time. The investments associated with this fund are concentrated in natural resources companies, which means that the fund is subject to greater risk and volatility than other funds with investments across a range of industry sectors. The fund invests in companies that have operations in developing markets and which therefore may be subject to higher volatility due to political, economic and currency instability. Shares in some of the underlying companies associated with the Fund may be difficult to sell in a timely manner and at a reasonable price. In extreme circumstances this may affect the ability of the Fund to meet redemption requests on demand.

Amati Global Investors Limited, 8 Coates Crescent, Edinburgh, EH3 7AL (Registered No. SC199908). Tel: 0131 503 9100. Email: info@amatiglobal.com.